With Matthew Stafford declaring for the NFL draft yesterday and the college bowl season coming to an end tonight, one of the most interesting questions that still looms from the college ranks is which of this year’s star college quarterbacks who will enter the NFL Draft and picked in the first round will be a bust? The debate is centered on whether it will be Sam Bradford, Stafford, Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, or some other lesser known prospect. With most of these verdicts based on projections of these players’ skills at the next level, but even with the trained eye it is very difficult to accurately project their NFL successes or lack there of success. The only semi accurate barometer of success for most young NFL quarterback prospect is how early in their career they are forced into extensive action. For those who are unfortunately forced into action in their rookie year, usually does not fare as well as those players who are given time to mature, and learn.
From 1983 to 2003 63.2% of the quarterbacks who saw significant action (25% of their team’s games) during their rookie season have turned out to be bust (Chuck Long, Jim Everett, Vinny Testeverde, Kelley Stoufer, Jeff George, and Rick Mirer Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith David Carr, and Joey Harrington). During the same time period 26.3% of the rookie quarterbacks that have seen significant time during their first season are considered all time greats (John Elway, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Peyton Manning) , and 10.5% of the signal callers are considered either good or decent quarterbacks (Donovan McNabb, and Drew Bledsoe). After watching the group of possible first round draft picks for the upcoming draft, I predict that the trend of the majority of first round quarterbacks who are rushed to play a significant amount of time in their first year, who become busts will continue just as it has in the past.
It is believed by many that the percentage of first year quarterbacks who will forced into early action will greatly increase in the coming seasons because of the success this season of super rookies Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. In the copycat world of the NFL, many GMs will ask the question, “Why am I paying a rookie tens of millions of real and more importantly salary cap dollars to sit on the bench and learn when Ryan and Flacco were able to come right into the league and play at a high level”. What many of these GMs will not realize are the shortcomings of their team’s defense and running games. They also will not take into account that these quarterback were asked to be game manager and not saviors of the franchise. There is a major difference between being a game manager with a stout defense behind you, and a running game that churns out yards like a Keebler Elf churns out cookies, and a quarterback who is asked to come into a situation like the Detroit Lions and be the savior of the franchise. The pressure that is put on a young kid who is put in this type of position with the dearth of talent that a team like the Lions has is overwhelming for even a seasoned quarterback such as John Kitna.
When a young quarterback is put into a situation where it is nearly impossible for him to succeed because of the lack of talent around him four things can happen, one he can get hurt from taking such a beating from opposing teams, two he can lose confidence in himself because he has never had to struggle like he currently is, three he can get cut because the team that drafted him thinks that they over evaluated his talent, or four he can become a unmotivated disinterested cancer on the team which will only perpetuate the losing atmosphere. With none of these outcomes being positive, it is senseless to put a young quarterback in a position in which he will not find success, especially since he is more than likely not equipped to deal with the harsh failures that he is bound to face in the NFL. The ultimate outcome of their rushed progression into the position of being a starting quarterback will ultimately lead the young star to being what many people have termed as a first round bust. In general the quarterback washout level of first round pick is approximately 50%, so with that being said, why not nurture your investment, or even better yet do not make the investment in a first round QB pick. I would personally prefer if my favorite team were to invest in a later round draft choice to lead the team. There have been many late round picks which have been turned out to be great pickups (Joe Montana, Tom Brady, or Matt Cassel), while at the same time there have been many first round flops in the history of the NFL (Andre Ware, Todd Blackledge, or Dan McGuire). This type of thinking still allows a team to possibly find a hidden gem, and have significant salary cap flexibility to sign other players.
With the development of a quarterback being so sensitive, it is even more risky to draft one high this year or next because of potential labor strife in the NFL in the 2010-11 season. If in that season, there is a long term lock out of the players by the owners as suggested by many, this could severely retard the progression of a potential franchise quarterback. The reason that the development of this key piece of a franchise could be stunted is because a QB’s steps in the developmental process are very regimented. The lack of practice time and even more importantly reps with the coaches critiquing the QBs every move will be missed and bad technique and poor mechanics could creep into his delivery and throwing motion during the lockout period. With this risk and the enormous amount of money that will be tied into this one player, is it really worth the risk of handcuffing your franchise with a first round quarterback for five to seven years? The lack of flexibility that this player will create may hinder a team from picking up a key free agent, who could eventually contribute to a Super Bowl championship. Because of this reason and the potential for flameout, it is more important to invest in a high powered scouting department who finds stud players in the later rounds who may be from smaller schools, a tough General Manager who has the guts to draft a borderline player who could turn out to be a stud because he fits the team’s mold, a Capologist who signs players to reasonable and flexible contracts, and a coach who put the players in a position to succeed more than a perceived potential high powered quarterback who has a 50-50 chance to be a decent player in the league for 5 years.
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Johnson is a contributor to The Sports Information Hub and can be contacted at johnsonthesportsguy@gmail.com
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First and foremost, 50% of your picks being right?
ReplyDeleteSecondly, I agree with most of your thoughts here. Most often, college QBs are not ready for the speed and size of the NFL game. Simple fact. The only reason why some can succeed (Ryan, Flacco) is the set up. A solid offensive line (and LT) to protect the QB, and exactly as you said, having to MANAGE the games, not WIN the games. Flacco's stats aren't out of this world this year - you could argue that Dan Orlovsky could do equally as good given the game plan (strong rushing game, solid D so you're not playing from behind a whole lot) as Flacco. Matt Ryan does show flashes of brilliance, can't ignore that. He could be the real deal. See his first ever professional pass attempt.
Imagine what Matt Ryan would do with the Lions offensive line, their rushing game, and always playing from behind? He would get mauled. Rookie QBs can only be as good as their team around them.
Letting a QB learn the system and hone is skills under a veteran is usally a good idea. Worked for Carson Palmer. I would argue that it worked for Aaron Rogers as well.
The Lions can't afford to put a rookie QB in, and they don't have time to nurture one. They need to win now. They need to get an experienced QB who can win games, and either concentrate on Stanton or go for a late rounder and work on him for our future.
Sam bradford couldn't see over Backus's fat ass to throw the flat route to aveon caison. Why waste that pick? Get a game plan, get an offensive line, and pray.